Current trend

Against the neutral dynamics of the American currency, the USD/CHF pair is trading at 0.8810.

Macroeconomic statistics failed to support the position of the franc: according to the report of the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (BfS), the producer price and import index in January decreased by 0.5% to 106.7 points, and compared with the data for the same period last year – by 2.3%. The key factors behind the changes were the prices of oil, natural gas, petroleum products, and electronic products. However, according to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the Q1 consumer confidence index corrected from –35.0 points to –26.0 points, which gives hope for consumer activity to increase soon.

The American dollar held at 104.40 in USDX: investors reacted neutrally to statistics on initial jobless claims, the number of which decreased from 220.0K to 212.0K, as the total number of claims increased from 1.865M to 1.895M, and the average number of claims for the last four weeks – from 212.75K to 218.5K.

On Friday, US January manufacturing inflation data is due at 15:30 (GMT 2), the rate of decline of which is likely to slow down following the consumer price index, changing from 1.0% to 0.6% YoY. Core producer price inflation, excluding food and energy, is projected to adjust from 1.8% to 1.6%. At 17:00 (GMT 2), experts will pay attention to the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for February, which may increase from 79.0 points to 80.0 points.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting, holding above the intermediate correction level of 50.0% Fibonacci 0.8780, reflecting the possibility of continued movement.

Technical indicators are strengthening the global buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming ascending bars in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 0.8886, 0.9030.

Support levels: 0.8780, 0.8676.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 0.8886 with the target at 0.9030. Stop loss is around 0.8850. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 0.8780 with the target at 0.8676. Stop loss – 0.8820.