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US DOLLAR RALLY LOSES MOMENTUM AS FED DATA-DRIVEN THESIS IS SET FOR ANOTHER TEST

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  • The US Dollar retreats a touch on Monday after failing to break Friday's high. 
  • Traders are looking forward to a very choppy trading week, with a bank holiday on Friday.
  • The US Dollar Index steadies in the mid-104.00 range ahead of GDP and PCE data.

The US Dollar (USD) is facing a “pop quiz” moment before traders can enjoy a bank holiday this week,  with many trading desks and markets across the globe closed on Good Friday. Traders will likely continue to speculate on whether the Fed’s thesis of three cuts for this year is still valid, with a few interesting leading economic indicators and US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers at hand. As if that is not enough, on Good Friday (with thin liquidity and most markets closed), the US will release the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge: the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February. 

On the economic data front, Monday offers a soft opening for the trading week with only US New Home Sales as the data point to trade on. Three US Federal Reserve members are due to make an appearance: Lisa Cook, who is a member of the Board of Governors at the Fed, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Atlanta Fed Raphael Bostic. In the bond market, the US Treasury will be very active with three bond auctions taking place this Monday. 



Edited 26 Mar 2024, 18:39

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