Current trend

The XAG/USD pair is showing moderate growth, testing 24.70 and developing the "bullish" momentum formed the day before, when the instrument managed to retreat from its local lows of March 13 against the backdrop of uncertain prospects for monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve. Earlier, the American regulator refuted concerns about a slower than initially expected decline in borrowing costs this year: as before, markets are counting on three interest rate cuts by 25 basis points each, the first of which is expected in June.

Today, the focus of trading participants will be the final statistics on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2023, as well as data on the Initial Jobless Claims. Forecasts suggest that national economic growth will remain at 3.2%, while the number of jobless claims for the week ended March 22 will rise from 210.0 thousand to 215.0 thousand.

On Friday, the US will publish data on Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index, which is considered one of the main indicators in the US Federal Reserve's inflation calculation scheme. It is expected that in February the value will adjust from 0.3% to 0.4% in monthly terms and from 2.4% to 2.5% in annual terms, and the core index may decrease slightly from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and remain at the level of 2.8% on an annual basis.

A correction continues in the market of silver contracts. According to the report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in precious metal increased to 52.4 thousand from 41.0 thousand. Buyers continue to increase their advantage amid the influx of investor capital: according to the report on positions secured by real money, their balance is 53.683 thousand for the "bulls" versus 15.864 thousand for the "bears". Last week, buyers opened 8.031 thousand transactions, and sellers reduced their number by 3.127 thousand.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowed from below, being spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is going down preserving a previous sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having approached its lows, is trying to reverse towards growth, signaling in favor of the development of "bullish" dynamics in the near future.

Resistance levels: 24.71, 25.00, 25.35, 25.58.

Support levels: 24.40, 24.20, 24.00, 23.83.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 24.71 with the target of 25.35. Stop-loss — 24.40. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 24.71 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 24.40 may become a signal for opening of new short positions with the target at 23.83. Stop-loss — 24.71.