Current trend

During the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is testing the key support area of 0.6489–0.6447 against the background of statistics from the United States.

Last week, inflation data was published, which led to the strengthening of the US currency across the entire spectrum of the market. The consumer price index (CPI) in March amounted to 0.4% MoM, exceeding the expected 0.3%, and to 3.5% YoY, which also turned out to be higher than forecasts of 3.4%. In turn, the producer price index (PPI) in March increased by 2.1% YoY from 1.6%, while analysts expected 2.2%, and MoM the indicator decreased from 0.6% to 0.2%, above the preliminary estimates of 0.3%. The base value increased from 2.1% to 2.4%, with expectations at 2.3%. The published data contributed to increasing doubts about the readiness of the US Federal Reserve to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points in June.

Australian macroeconomic statistics turned out to be negative: for example, the number of construction permits decreased by 1.9% MoM, which coincided with the forecast, and the previous indicator was adjusted from -1.0% to -2.5%.

Last week, the Australian dollar quotes fell from the resistance level of 0.6629 to the 0.6489 mark, below which is the key support level of 0.6447. The 0.6489 and 0.6447 marks form the support area in which the instrument is currently trading. The long-term trend is upward: if the support area indicated above is held by buyers, it will be possible to assume an increase in the AUD/USD pair with a target at the resistance area of 0.6657–0.6629. If the support area of 0.6489–0.6447 is broken down, the trend will change to a downward one and it will be possible to consider sales with the target of 0.6353.

The medium-term trend changed to a downward one last week: the key trend support of 0.6522–0.6508 was broken and now the sales target is target zone 2 (0.6377–0.6363). The key resistance is the 0.6615–0.6601 zone. In the case of a price correction in this area, one can consider selling the instrument with the first target at last week's low of 0.6459.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.6629, 0.6657, 0.6859.

Support levels: 0.6489, 0.6447, 0.6353, 0.6285.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.6447 with the target of 0.6629 and stop-loss of 0.6387. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Short positions can be opened below the 0.6387 mark with the target of 0.6285 and stop-loss of 0.6485.