Current trend

During the Asian session, the price of WTI Crude Oil rose slightly, testing the resistance level of 85.50.

Expectations of a further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East moderately support the instrument. However, yesterday, the quotes fell slightly, reacting to the fact that the damage caused by Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend was extremely minor, and retaliatory measures will most likely not follow. In addition, according to media reports, US President Joe Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Washington would not support Israeli aggression. Note that Iran is the third largest oil producer in OPEC, producing over 3.0M barrels per day, and any interruptions in supplies from the region could significantly affect price dynamics in the market.

Macroeconomic data additionally supported the American dollar on Monday: in March, retail sales fell from 0.9% to 0.7%, although analysts expected 0.3%, and the core indicator excluding cars – from 0.6% to 1.1%, contrary to forecasts of a slowdown to 0.4%. Today at 15:15 (GMT 2), a report on industrial production will be published. According to preliminary estimates, the March indicator will increase from 0.1% to 0.4%. Traders will also focus on the speech by US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and statistics from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on the dynamics of commercial oil reserves for the week of April 12: previously, their volume increased by 3.034M barrels.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are actively growing: the price range is narrowing, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator is declining, maintaining a poor sell signal: the histogram is below the signal line. Stochastic is trying to reverse into an upward plane, signaling in favor of a full-fledged upward correction soon.

Resistance levels: 85.50, 86.00, 87.00, 88.52.

Support levels: 84.75, 84.00, 83.00, 82.00.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a breakout of 85.50, with the target at 87.00. Stop loss – 84.75. Implementation time: 1–2 days.

Short positions may be opened after a rebound from 85.50 and a breakdown of 84.75, with the target at 83.00. Stop loss – 85.50.