EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows slight growth, consolidating near 1.0680 after a rather active increase the day before, when investors focused special attention on the speeches of the heads of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), as well as on macroeconomic statistics on inflation from the eurozone. In March, the Consumer Price Index added 0.8% in monthly terms and 2.4% in annual terms, which completely coincided not only with previous estimates, but also with current analysts’ forecasts. The American currency was supported by statements from the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who, speaking at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, said that it would take longer for inflation to reach target levels than initially estimated. At the same time, officials still count on easing monetary policy this year. The most likely scenario at the moment involves the first interest rate cut of 25 basis points in September, but many analysts suggest that the regulator may decide to change the rate only at the end of the year. In total, one or two adjustments to borrowing costs are expected in 2024. Statements by ECB President Christine Lagarde turned out to be more "dovish": despite the remaining uncertainty, the vector of monetary policy may still change significantly. Forecasts suggest that the European authority may cut interest rates in June.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is showing moderate growth, developing the weak "bullish" impetus formed the day before. The instrument is testing 1.2470 for a breakout, while analysts evaluate inflation statistics in the UK. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% month-on-month in March and slowed down from 3.4% to 3.2% year-on-year, while analysts had expected 3.1% and the Core CPI fell from 4.5% to 4.2% on an annual basis with a forecast of 4.1%, and on a monthly basis increased from 0.1% to 0.3%. The Retail Price Index adjusted from 4.5% to 4.3% in annual terms with preliminary estimates of 4.2%, and in monthly terms the figure dropped from 0.8% to 0.5%. On Friday, March Retail Sales data will be published in the UK: an increase of 0.3% is expected after February's zero dynamics. The focus of investors today will be on statistics on jobless claims in the United States: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended April 12 may increase from 211.0 thousand to 215.0 thousand, and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended April 5 are expected to remain around the same level of 1.817 million. Also, during the day, data on Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey will be published, the forecast for which suggests a decrease in the indicator in April from 3.2 points to 1.5 points.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, developing the "bullish" momentum of the previous trading session, when the instrument managed to retreat from the local lows of November 14, 2023. Quotes are testing 0.6445 for a breakout, while trading participants analyze the March report on the Australian labor market published on Thursday. The Employment Change fell by 6.6 thousand jobs after a sharp increase of 117.6 thousand in the previous month, while analysts expected 7.2 thousand. At the same time, Full-Time Employment increased by 27.9 thousand, and Part-Time Employment decreased by 34.5 thousand. The Unemployment Rate rose from 3.7% to 3.8% against expectations of 3.9%, and the Participation Rate corrected from 66.7% to 66.6%. The American currency received some support after speeches by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in previous days. The official did not indicate the exact timing of the launch of the program to reduce the cost of borrowing, but emphasized that the national economy will need a little more time for inflation to reach target levels of 2.0%. Against this backdrop, investors again began to revise their forecasts for the first interest rate adjustment this year. The most likely scenario seems to be an easing of monetary policy in September, but it is also possible that the regulator will decide to change its course at the end of 2024. In total, no more than two reductions in the rate are expected this year.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows a slight decline, developing an uncertain downward correction. The instrument is retreating from record highs located near the resistance level of 154.80, while analysts assess the risks of possible intervention by the Bank of Japan due to the rapid weakening of the national currency. At the moment, investors have formally set the bar, crossing which may entail any action from the Japanese regulator, at 155.00. In turn, the US currency is strengthening against the backdrop of a review of the possible timing of the start of easing of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. The main scenario assumes the first interest rate cut no earlier than September, while some analysts assume that officials will leave monetary parameters unchanged this year. The yen is receiving some support today from macroeconomic statistics from Japan: the Tertiary Industry Index in February rose from 0.3% to 1.5%, while analysts expected 0.8%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is showing moderate growth, recovering from a rather noticeable decline the day before, which did not allow the instrument to consolidate at new local highs of April 12. The reason for the negative dynamics was the American currency attempting to strengthen against the backdrop of a correction in expectations regarding the imminent launch of a "dovish" monetary policy cycle in the United States. Earlier, the Chair of the American financial regulator Jerome Powell noted that it will probably take a little longer than initially estimated for inflation to reach target levels of 2.0%. This could lead to the Fed continuing to maintain a wait-and-see approach, putting pressure on gold, which does not earn interest. The situation could change even more with the European Central Bank's (ECB) expected interest rate cut in early summer, while forecasts for the US figure suggest a rate cut only in September. The focus of investors today will be on Existing Home Sales in the United States: it is expected that in March the figure will decrease from 4.38 million to 4.20 million, while in the previous month Existing Home Sales Change increased by 9.5%. Also, during the day, data on jobless claims will be presented: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended April 12 is likely to increase from 211.0 thousand to 215.0 thousand.