The United States of America

USD is strengthening against EUR, JPY, and GBP.

The March durable goods orders increased by 2.6%, exceeding both estimates of 2.5% and the previous 0.7%. The core figure corrected 0.2%, less than the 0.3% forecast but more than the 0.1% increase in February. Tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT 2), preliminary data on Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) is due. The national economic growth may slow from 3.4% to 2.5%, remaining high enough to allow the US Fed officials to keep the “hawkish” monetary policy.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening against GBP, JPY, and USD.

The April German business climate index from the Institute for Economic Research (IFO) rose from 87.9 points to 89.4 points, exceeding the expected 88.9 points, the current business conditions index from 88.1 points to 88.9 points instead of forecasts of 88.7 points, and business expectations index from 87.7 points to 89.9 points against expectations of 88.9 points. The positive dynamics have been developing for the third month, so experts hope the economy will exit the recession quickly. However, they are confident that the pace will remain slow. IFO President Clemens Fuest noted that the situation is stabilizing thanks to the service sector. Meanwhile, the head of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, said that inflation in the Eurozone may be persistent, so the European regulator’s interest rate cut in June will not necessarily be followed by further monetary policy easing.

The United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against EUR but weakening against JPY and USD.

The April index of industrial orders from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) decreased from –18.0 points to –23.0 points instead of the expected increase to –16.0 points. However, business representatives are positive, which was reflected in the growth of the business optimism index from –3.0 points to 9.0 points. CBI analysts note that the positive dynamics are due to a decrease in qualified personnel shortage and supply chain problems. In addition, markets are hoping that the Bank of England will start cutting interest rates soon, contributing to the recovery of the national economy. According to the Reuters survey of leading economists regarding the regulator’s further actions, approximately half of the experts believe that officials will begin adjusting monetary policy in June, and the rest believe it will be in the third quarter.

Japan

JPY is weakening against USD but strengthening against EUR and GBP.

The March corporate service price index rose from 2.2% to 2.3% instead of the expected decline to 2.1% YoY. Inflation in the sector has been growing for the second month, contributing to stronger consumer prices and a tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. Today, the value of the American dollar exceeded the psychological level of 155.0 yen, which experts consider the key one for the government to begin interventions to stabilize the exchange rate, which, in turn, restrains further yen weakening but does not stop it completely.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against GBP, EUR, JPY and USD.

The Q1 consumer price index rose from 0.6% to 1.0%, exceeding the forecast of 0.8%, and fell from 4.1% to 3.6% YoY compared to estimates of 3.4%. The core indicator adjusted from 4.2% to 4.0%, less than experts expected (3.8%). Thus, inflationary pressures in the economy are easing more slowly than expected, allowing Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials to keep interest rates higher for longer, supporting the Australian dollar.

Oil

Oil prices today have ambiguous dynamics and are trading in narrow ranges.

The market is under the influence of opposite factors. The asset is under pressure from the weakening of the US manufacturing PMI from 51.9 points to 49.9 points in April. The indicator has entered a stagnation zone, which may cause a reduction in oil consumption in the leading global economy. On the other hand, a significant decline is hampered by a reduction in commercial oil reserves by 3.220M barrels instead of the expected increase of 1.800M barrels, according to a report by the American Petroleum Institute (API). Today’s data from the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) may reflect an increase in oil reserves by 1.600M barrels, which will negatively impact the trading instrument.