Current trend

During the Asian session, the quotes for the NZD/USD pair traded at 0.6000.

The positive dynamics of the New Zealand dollar are constrained by poor macroeconomic reporting: according to the National Statistics Service of New Zealand (Stats.nz), housing starts amounted to 35.236K YoY, which is 25.0% less than the same indicator in 2023 of 15.166K private houses and 20.070 apartment buildings was approved, which is 23.0% and 26.0% lower than the statistics presented earlier. Thus, the volume of construction permits has adjusted to April 2016 levels, which creates an extremely negative outlook for a sector that has a significant impact on economic growth.

As for the US currency, which remains the main driver of the NZD/USD pair at the moment, it continued to decline, and today, it remains at 105.0 points in USDX. Investors reacted negatively to the labor market report, according to which the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in April from 3.8%. It occurred against a correction in the increase in employment in the non-agricultural sector from 315.0K to 175.0K a month earlier, as well as the number of employees from 243.0K to 167.0K in the private non-agricultural sector. At the same time, despite the slowdown in the American economy and the cooling of the labor market, the US Fed will likely continue to maintain a wait-and-see attitude. At the moment, analysts do not expect an interest rate cut until the regulator’s November meeting, although they admit that much will depend on the incoming macroeconomic statistics.

Support and resistance

The trading instrument is correcting near the resistance line of the downward channel with dynamic boundaries of 0.6050–0.5800.

Technical indicators weaken the sell signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator narrow the range of fluctuations, moving below the signal line, and the AO histogram forms upward bars below the transition level, approaching it.

Resistance levels: 0.6020, 0.6110.

Support levels: 0.5970, 0.5890.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 0.6020, with the target at 0.6110. Stop loss – 0.5950. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 0.5970, with the target at 0.5890. Stop loss – 0.6010.