EUR/USD

The euro shows flat dynamics during the Asian session on May 9, holding close to 1.0745. Some European trading floors are closed due to national holidays, and incoming macroeconomic statistics do not contribute to the formation of a sustainable trend. The day before, March data on Industrial Production in Germany were presented, where on a monthly basis the figure fell by 0.4% after an upward trend of 1.7% earlier, although analysts expected -0.6%, and in annual terms the rate of decline slowed down from −5.3% to −3.3%. The focus of investors' attention on Thursday is American statistics on Initial Jobless Claims where a correction is expected from 208.0 thousand to 210.0 thousand, while Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended April 26 is likely to remain at the previous level of 1.774 million. On Friday, market participants will pay attention to the minutes of the latest meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on monetary policy, as well as speeches by representatives of the US Federal Reserve and Consumer Confidence indices from the University of Michigan for May. Most interesting will be the Monthly Budget Statement, which in April may return to the surplus zone at 265.5 billion dollars after −236.0 billion dollars last month.

GBP/USD

The pound is showing near-zero dynamics, consolidating at 1.2500 and holding in the area of the local lows of May 1, updated the day before. Market activity remains subdued as UK investors are reluctant to open new trading positions ahead of the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, May 9. Current estimates do not imply changes in monetary policy, while the overall tone of officials' rhetoric may soften somewhat. In general, markets are counting on financial authorities to signal a 25-basis-point interest rate adjustment by August 1, while it is worth noting that the latest inflation forecasts, which were presented in February, noted that the Consumer Price Index would return to the target level of 2.0% in only two and a half years. In turn, the April RICS Housing Price Balance, which records changes in the value of real estate and allows one to analyze the situation on the market, reflected a slowdown in dynamics by the previous 5.0%, which did not coincide with the opinion of analysts who expected a decrease by 2.0%. Today at 14:30 (GMT 2) market participants will focus on statistics on jobless claims in the United States: Initial Jobless Claims is likely to increase from 208.0 thousand to 210.0 thousand. On Friday, UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) updated data for the first quarter of 2024 will be published. Forecasts suggest that the quarterly figure will increase by 0.4% after a correction of -0.3%, and the annual figure may reflect zero dynamics after a decline of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is trading mixed during the Asian session, holding close to 0.6575. "Bearish" sentiment prevails on the market, but activity remains subdued due to the small volume of key macroeconomic statistics. Today, market participants paid attention to data from China, which provided local support for the Australian currency. April Exports rose 1.5% year on year after correcting by -7.5% in the previous month and analysts had expected just 1.0%, while Imports accelerated 8.4% from -1.9% earlier, although investors expected only 5.4%. Against this background, the trade balance surplus increased from 58.55 billion dollars to 72.35 billion dollars, only slightly inferior to the preliminary market estimates of 76.70 billion dollars. In addition, investors are assessing the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): the regulator kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.35%, and also noted its readiness to adjust the parameters if the market situation requires it. Today at 14:30 (GMT 2) statistics on Initial Jobless Claims will be presented in the United States, where forecasts suggest an increase from 208.0 thousand to 210.0 thousand, while Continuing Jobless Claims may be recorded around 1.774 million.

USD/JPY

The American currency shows mixed trading dynamics in the USD/JPY pair during the Asian session, holding near 155.60 and retreating from the local lows of April 10, updated at the end of last week, when, according to experts, the Bank of Japan used the currency intervention mechanism to support the exchange rate national currency. There has been no official confirmation from the regulator regarding intervention in the market situation, but against the backdrop of the negative dynamics of the yen, which has been observed for the third session in a row, investors are expecting new actions from the financial authorities. Macroeconomic statistics from Japan published today did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the pair. However, the Leading Economic Index in March showed a slight decline from 112.1 points to 111.4 points, which turned out to be slightly better than the forecasts of 111.0 points, while the Coincident Index, on the contrary, strengthened its position from 111.5 points to 113.9 points. Tomorrow, trading participants will pay attention to the March data on the dynamics of Overall Household Spending adjusted for inflation, where current forecasts suggest an increase in the negative dynamics of the indicator by 2.4% year on year after -0.5% previously.

XAU/USD

Gold prices show muted growth, recovering from mostly "bearish" trading in the last two sessions, resulting in the XAU/USD pair refreshing local lows from May 3. Now quotes are testing the level of 2320.00 for a breakout, while analysts expect the emergence of new drivers for movement. Among other things, at 13:00 (GMT 2) the results of the Bank of England meeting on monetary policy will be announced: current forecasts suggest that the main interest rate will remain unchanged at 5.25%, while the general rhetoric of the regulator's officials may soften somewhat. Markets are now pricing in an almost 100.0% probability of the first decline in the indicator by 25 basis points before August 1, while the US Federal Reserve may decide to change parameters only in September or even November, which will provide further significant support to the US currency. The driver for strengthening gold prices continues to be the fact of increasing demand for the metal from China and other central banks of developing countries. In particular, the Chinese authorities announced a replenishment of reserves in April by 60.0 thousand troy ounces, which was the eighteenth month in a row when analysts recorded their growth.