Note

Forex Today: USD cheers Fed’s policy repricing, Gulf tensions rise, and Oil surges

HamidAli
· Views 15,330
  • US dollar index rises on falling odds of aggressive Fed rate cuts.
  • Oil surges on escalating Gulf tensions.
  • All eyes on trade and geopolitical developments.

Here is what you need to know to start your day on Monday, July 22nd, European session: 

- US dollar firmed up across the board on a likely smaller Fed rate cut, Gulf tensions stoked safe-haven demand, Treasury yields were soggy, Asian equities slipped.

- Japan's Abe won the upper house election but fell short of 2/3rd ‘Super Majority’ to needed to amend the nation's pacifist constitution, USD/JPY re-attempted 108.00.

- Trade: Some Chinese companies are seeking new purchases of US agricultural products, S. Korea-Japan trade concerns loom.

- UK: All eyes on new UK PM election. FinMin Hammond to quit if Johnson becomes the PM. Cable hovered around 1.2500.

- Oil prices rallied on escalating UK-Iran tensions over 'hostile act' of UK tankers seizure by Iran. The UK weighing response to Iran Gulf crisis with few good options.

- Gold was lifted by Gulf tensions, but upside capped by dollar gains.

- Cryptocurrencies consolidated in tight ranges. Bitcoin unmotivated below 11k.

Key events to watch

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Sunday, Jul 21
24h
EUR National holiday
 
      
Monday, Jul 22
04:30
EUR Consumer Confidence Adj
 
2
  
0
04:30
EUR Consumer Spending Volume
 
2.4%
  
1.8%
06:00
DKK Retail Sales (YoY)
 
    
-0.7%
06:00
DKK Industrial Outlook
 
    
-5
08:30
HKD Consumer Price Index
 
  
2.7%
2.8%
09:00
ISK Consumer Price Index (MoM)
 
    
0.4%
09:00
ISK Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
    
3.3%
10:00
EUR German Buba Monthly Report
 
      
10:00
GBP CBI Industrial Trends Survey - Orders (MoM)
 
    
-15
n/a
ILS M1 Money Supply (MoM)
 
    
8.7%
10:00
ILS Industrial Production (MoM)
 
    
2.9%
12:00
PLN M3 Money Supply (YoY)
 
  
10.0%
9.9%
12:30
USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index
 
    
-0.05
12:30
CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM)
 
  
0.2%
1.7%
15:00
JPY BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech
 
      
15:30
USD 3-Month Bill Auction
 
    
2.115%
15:30
USD 6-Month Bill Auction
 
    
2.01%
22:30
AUD RBA's Kent speech
 
      
Tuesday, Jul 23
05:00
EUR Unemployment Rate
 
    
6.6%
05:00
SGD Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
  
0.7
0.9
06:00
DKK Consumer Confidence
 
    
5.8
07:00
TRY Consumer Confidence
 
    
57.6
08:00
PLN Unemployment (MoM)
 
  
5.3%
5.4%
08:00
EUR ECB Bank Lending Survey
 
      
08:30
GBP FPC Meeting Minutes
 
      
12:00
BRL Mid-month Inflation
 
  
0.06%
0.06%
12:00
HUF MNB Interest Rate Decision
 
  
0.9%
0.9%
12:15
GBP BoE's Haldane speech
 
      
12:55
USD Redbook Index (YoY)
 
    
4.7%
12:55
USD Redbook Index (MoM)
 
    
1%
13:00
USD Housing Price Index (MoM)
 
  
0.3%
0.4%
14:00
USD Existing Home Sales (MoM)
 
  
5.35M
5.34M
14:00
USD Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)
 
  
1.2%
2.5%
14:00
USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
 
  
5
3
14:00
EUR Consumer Confidence
 
  
-7.2
-7.2
17:00
USD 2-Year Note Auction
 
    
1.695%
20:30
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
 
    
-1.401M
22:45
NZD Exports
 
    
$5.81B
22:45
NZD Trade Balance (YoY)
 
    
$-5.49B
22:45
NZD Imports
 
    
$5.54B
22:45
NZD Trade Balance (MoM)
 
    
$264M
Wednesday, Jul 24
00:30
JPY Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
 
  
49.7
49.3
05:00
EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)
 
    
0.9%
05:00
EUR Import Prices (YoY)
 
    
-0.7%
05:00
EUR Export Prices (YoY)
 
    
-0.1%
05:00
JPY Leading Economic Index
 
  
95.2
95.2
05:00
JPY Coincident Index
 
  
103.2
103.2
06:45
EUR Business Climate
 
  
104
102
07:15
EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI
 
  
50.7
51.9
07:15
EUR Markit Services PMI
 
  
51.5
52.9
07:15
EUR Markit PMI Composite
 
  
51.2
52.7
07:30
EUR Markit PMI Composite
 
  
52.5
52.6
07:30
EUR Markit Services PMI
 
  
55.5
55.8
07:30
EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI
 
  
45.1
45.0
08:00
ZAR Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
  
4.4%
4.5%
08:00
ZAR Consumer Price Index (MoM)
 
  
0.3%
0.3%
08:00
EUR M3 Money Supply (3m)
 
    
4.7%
08:00
EUR M3 Money Supply (YoY)
 
  
4.7%
4.8%
08:00
EUR Markit PMI Composite
 
  
52.0
52.2
08:00
EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI
 
  
47.7
47.6
08:00
EUR Markit Services PMI
 
  
53.3
53.6
08:30
GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals
 
    
42.384K
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications
 
    
-1.1%
13:00
MXN 1st half-month Inflation
 
  
0.08%
0.01%
13:00
MXN 1st half-month Core Inflation
 
  
0.13%
0.16%
13:00
EUR Leading Indicator
 
    
-4.9
13:45
USD Markit Manufacturing PMI
 
  
50.4
50.6
13:45
USD Markit Services PMI
 
  
51.0
51.5
13:45
USD Markit PMI Composite
 
    
51.5
14:00
USD New Home Sales (MoM)
 
  
0.650M
0.626M
14:00
USD New Home Sales Change (MoM)
 
    
-7.8%
14:30
USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
 
    
-3.116M
17:00
USD 5-Year Note Auction
 
    
1.791%
23:00
KRW Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ)
 
  
0.4%
-0.4%
23:00
KRW Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY)
 
  
2.9%
1.7%
23:50
JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY)
 
  
0.0%
0.8%
23:50
JPY Foreign Bond Investment
 
    
¥950B
23:50
JPY Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks
 
    
¥-93.1B
Thursday, Jul 25
03:05
AUD RBA's Governor Lowe speech
 
      
06:00
NOK Labour Force Survey
 
    
3.2%
07:00
TRY Manufacturing Confidence
 
    
102.5
07:00
TRY Capacity Utilization
 
    
77.1%
07:00
EUR Unemployment Survey
 
  
14.38%
14.70%
07:00
EUR Industrial Production (YoY)
 
    
4.5%
07:00
SEK Consumer Confidence (MoM)
 
    
93.8
07:30
SEK Unemployment Rate
 
  
6.5%
6.8%
07:30
SEK Producer Price Index (MoM)
 
    
0%
07:30
SEK Producer Price Index (YoY)
 
    
3.5%
08:00
EUR IFO - Business Climate
 
  
96.7
97.4
08:00
EUR IFO - Current Assessment
 
  
98.7
100.8
08:00
EUR IFO - Expectations
 
  
95.2
94.2
08:00
EUR Trade Balance non-EU
 
    
€3.11B
09:30
ZAR Producer Price Index (YoY)
 
  
5.8%
6.4%
09:30
ZAR Producer Price Index (MoM)
 
  
0.4%
0.5%
10:00
GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM)
 
    
-42%
11:00
TRY CBRT Interest Rate Decision
 
  
22%
24%
11:45
EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
 
  
0%
0%
11:45
EUR ECB Deposit Rate Decision
 
  
-0.4%
-0.4%
12:30
USD Continuing Jobless Claims
 
    
1.686M
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims
 
    
216K
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average
 
    
218.75K
12:30
USD Wholesale Inventories
 
    
0.4%
12:30
USD Goods Trade Balance
 
    
$-75.05B Revised from $-74.55B
12:30
USD Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft
 
  
0.1%
0.5% Revised from 0.4%
12:30
USD Durable Goods Orders
 
  
0.5%
-1.3%
12:30
USD Durable Goods Orders ex Defense
 
    
-0.5% Revised from -0.6%
12:30
USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation
 
  
0.1%
0.4% Revised from 0.3%
12:30
EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference
 
      
13:00
MXN Retail Sales (YoY)
 
  
1.4%
1.6%
13:00
MXN Retail Sales (MoM)
 
    
0.7%
13:00
RUB Central Bank Reserves $
 
    
$519.7B
13:30
BRL Current Account
 
    
$0.662B
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
 
    
62B
15:00
USD Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity
 
    
-3
15:30
USD 4-Week Bill Auction
 
    
2.09%
17:00
USD 7-Year Note Auction
 
    
1.889%
19:00
ARS Trade Balance (MoM)
 
  
$850M
$1,373M
21:00
KRW Consumer Sentiment Index
 
    
97.5
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
  
1.1%
1.1%
23:30
JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)
 
  
0.8%
0.9%
23:30
JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)
 
  
0.8%
0.8%
Friday, Jul 26
05:00
SGD Industrial Production (YoY)
 
  
-2.2%
-2.4%
05:00
SGD Industrial Production (MoM)
 
  
-0.8%
-0.7%
06:00
EUR Import Price Index (MoM)
 
    
-0.1%
06:00
EUR Import Price Index (YoY)
 
    
-0.2%
06:45
EUR Producer Prices (MoM)
 
  
-0.2%
-0.4%
06:45
EUR Consumer Confidence
 
  
103
101
07:30
SEK Retail Sales (YoY)
 
    
-0.5%
07:30
SEK Retail Sales (MoM)
 
    
-2%
07:30
SEK Trade Balance (MoM)
 
    
8.3B
08:00
EUR Business Confidence
 
  
103.4
100.8
08:00
EUR Consumer Confidence
 
  
111.2
109.6
10:00
EUR Retail Sales (YoY)
 
    
1.1%
10:00
EUR Retail Sales (MoM)
 
    
-2.4%
10:30
RUB Interest rate decision
 
  
7.5%
7.5%
11:30
INR FX Reserves, USD
 
    
$428.8B
12:30
USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index
 
  
1.3%
0.6%
12:30
USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized
 
  
1.9%
3.1%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)
 
  
0.6%
0.5%
12:30
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)
 
  
1.2%
1.2%
12:30
EUR Current Account Balance EUR
 
    
€-337B
13:00
MXN Trade Balance s/a, $
 
  
$-0.746B
$0.984B
13:00
MXN Trade Balance, $
 
  
$-1.030B
$1.031B
17:00
USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
 
    
779
19:30
USD CFTC USD NC Net Positions
 
    
$38.4K
19:30
USD CFTC Oil NC Net Positions
 
    
423.8K
19:30
USD CFTC Gold NC Net Positions
 
    
$245.5K
19:30
GBP CFTC GBP NC Net Positions
 
    
£-76.4K
19:30
JPY CFTC JPY NC Net Positions
 
    
¥-11.4K
19:30
EUR CFTC EUR NC Net Positions
 
    
€-31.4K
19:30
AUD CFTC AUD NC Net Positions
 
    
$-52.6K
20:00
COP Interest rate
 
    
4.25%

 


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