Note

Forex Today: Trade wars in the spotlight ahead of US NFP, Aussie benefits from retail sales

· Views 88,965

Friday’s Asian session carries the late-Thursday moves, triggered through the trade war escalation, as the US President Donald Trump stands ready to tax the hell out of China unless they agree for a trade deal. Adding to the pessimism was North Korea’s third round of missile test in a week’s time and the White House notice of the President Trump’s EU trade term announcement at 18:45 BST on Friday. At the data front, Australian Retail Sales and PPI flashed upbeat numbers while BOJ minutes sound a bit hawkish.

USD/JPY holds its stand as a winner while Gold stands on the other extreme amid worries emanating from China, one of the world’s largest bullion user. The AUD/USD benefits from upbeat Australia data raising bars for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) immediate rate cuts whereas NZD/USD couldn’t ignore commodity traders’ pain. Moving on, the GBP/USD extended its downpour as UK lawmakers continue preparing for a no-deal Brexit while EUR/USD retreats as markets prepare for Eurozone Retail Sales, US employment data. Furthermore, USD/CAD couldn’t portray the WTI increase, driven due to the fresh US-Venezuela tension, and the USD/CHF portrays downbeat market sentiment before Swiss inflation numbers.

Main Topics in Asia

President Trump to make an announcement on EU trade at 13:45 EST

US Secretary of State: China has taken advantage of trade for decades – Bloomberg

Aussie Retail Sales beat by 0.1% MoM, miss 0.1% QoQ

Japan removes South Korea from trusted export white list - Bloomberg

President Trump: Until there's a deal, we'll be taxing hell out of China

BoJ Minutes for Jun 19 and 20 2019 meeting: Members felt it appropriate to keep easing persistently

US President Trump ruled out Treasury Sec. Mnuchin’s proposal to warn China – Bloomberg

UK Chancellor Sajid Javid orders HMRC to ramp up no-deal Brexit preparations – FT

Moody's: UK’s credit profile vulnerable to new government’s spending plans

US officials: North Korea conducts new projectile launch – Reuters

Key Focus Ahead

It’s the US jobs report day and hence nothing matters more than the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) up for publishing at 12:30 GMT. However, July month Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Eurozone Retail Sales for June can offer intermediate moves. Additionally, Canadian trade numbers, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Factory Orders could also entertain traders.

Having witnessed two months of volatile employment numbers from the US, the NFP are returning to the long-term averages with 164K forecast. Also, the Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) can increase to 3.2% from 3.1% while no change is expected from the Unemployment Rate of 3.7%.

EUR/USD: Focus on US non-farm payrolls, today’s close pivotal

EUR/USD rejected near 1.11 in Asia, possibly due to risk aversion. The quote could drop below 1.10 if the US non-farm payrolls data blows past expectations.  Bull hammer reversal likely if the data misses estimates. 

GBP/USD: No respite for Sterling bulls despite sliding US yields

GBP/USD rejected at 5-day MA hurdle amid Sino-US trade tensions. US 10-year bond yield fell 20 basis points on Thursday but failed to put a strong bid.  A weaker-than-expected US jobs data could yield a corrective rally. 

Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Focus on wages in a dollar-friendly setup – Five EUR/USD scenarios

US Non-Farm Payrolls are set to provide a fresh direction after markets digested the Fed decision. Low expectations may lead to a positive surprise. The US dollar is well-positioned into the release.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Thursday, Aug 01
24h
CHF National Holiday
 
     
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
 
65B
57B
36B
15:30
USD 4-Week Bill Auction
 
2.08%
 
2.11%
19:00
BRL Trade Balance
 
2.293B
3.800B
5.019B
19:30
USD Total Vehicle Sales
 
 
16.9M
17.3M
23:50
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
 
     
23:50
JPY Monetary Base (YoY)
 
3.7%
3.2%
4.0%
Friday, Aug 02
01:30
AUD Producer Price Index (YoY)
 
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
01:30
AUD Producer Price Index (QoQ)
 
0.4%
0.3%
0.4%
01:30
AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)
 
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
06:30
CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM)
 
 
-0.3%
0.0%
06:30
CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
 
0.5%
0.6%
07:00
EUR Unemployment Change
 
 
-21.4K
-63.8K
07:00
HUF Retail Sales (YoY)
 
   
2.6%
07:30
CHF SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index
 
 
46.5
47.7
08:00
EUR Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY)
 
 
-2.1%
-0.7%
08:00
EUR Industrial Output s.a. (MoM)
 
 
-0.3%
0.9%
08:00
BRL Fipe's IPC Inflation
 
   
0.15%
08:00
NOK Registered Unemployment s.a
 
 
77.30K
77.02K
08:00
NOK Registered Unemployment n.s.a
 
 
2.3%
2.1%
08:30
GBP Markit Construction PMI
 
 
46.0
43.1
09:00
EUR Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY)
 
 
0.2%
-1.8%
09:00
EUR Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)
 
 
0.4%
-0.7%
09:00
EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)
 
 
0.8%
1.6%
09:00
EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)
 
 
-0.3%
-0.1%
09:00
EUR Retail Sales (MoM)
 
 
0.2%
-0.3%
09:00
EUR Retail Sales (YoY)
 
 
1.3%
1.3%
11:30
INR Bank Loan Growth
 
   
12%
11:30
INR FX Reserves, USD
 
   
$430.38B
12:30
USD Average Weekly Hours
 
 
34.4
34.4
12:30
USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)
 
 
3.2%
3.1%
12:30
USD Nonfarm Payrolls
 
 
164K
224K
12:30
USD Unemployment Rate
 
 
3.7%
3.7%
12:30
USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
 
 
0.2%
0.2%
12:30
USD Labor Force Participation Rate
 
   
62.9%
12:30
USD Trade Balance
 
 
$-54.6B
$-55.5B
12:30
CAD Imports
 
 
$51.80B
$52.34B
12:30
CAD International Merchandise Trade
 
 
$-0.30B
$0.76B
12:30
CAD Exports
 
 
$51.50B
$53.11B
13:00
SGD Purchasing Managers Index
 
   
49.6
13:45
USD ISM-NY Business Conditions Index
 
   
50
14:00
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
 
 
98.5
98.4
14:00
USD Factory Orders (MoM)
 
 
0.8%
-0.7%
15:00
DKK Currency Reserves
 
   
449.6B
17:00
USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
 
   
776
19:30
USD CFTC USD NC Net Positions
 
   
$54.4K
19:30
USD CFTC Gold NC Net Positions
 
   
$251.2K
19:30
USD CFTC Oil NC Net Positions
 
   
397.9K
19:30
GBP CFTC GBP NC Net Positions
 
   
£-78.6K
19:30
JPY CFTC JPY NC Net Positions
 
   
¥-9.4K
19:30
EUR CFTC EUR NC Net Positions
 
   
€-39K
19:30
AUD CFTC AUD NC Net Positions
 
   
$-48K
23:01
EUR Consumer Confidence
 
   
90.7
Saturday, Aug 03
n/a
AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
 
   
28.8%
Sunday, Aug 04
21:00
KRW FX Reserves
 
 
402.49B
403.07B
22:30
AUD AiG Performance of Services Index
 
   
52.2
23:00
AUD Commonwealth Bank Services PMI
 
   
51.9
23:00
AUD Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI
 
   
51.8
Monday, Aug 05
24h
EUR August Holiday
 
     
24h
CAD August Civic Holiday
 
     
00:00
AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM)
 
   
0%
00:30
JPY Markit Services PMI
 
 
52.3
51.9
01:00
NZD ANZ Commodity Price
 
 
0.0%
-3.9%
01:30
AUD ANZ Job Advertisements
 
   
4.6%
01:45
CNY Caixin Services PMI
 
 
52.9
52.0
n/a
IDR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)
 
   
5.07%
n/a
IDR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
 
   
-0.52%
05:45
CHF SECO Consumer Climate (3m)
 
 
-10
-6
06:00
RUB Purchasing Manager Index Services
 
   
49.7
06:30
CHF Real Retail Sales (YoY)
 
 
-0.5%
-1.7%
06:45
EUR Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ)
 
   
0.4%
06:45
EUR Individual Investment (Current Year)
 
   
11%
07:00
TRY Producer Price Index (MoM)
 
   
0.09%
07:00
TRY Producer Price Index (YoY)
 
   
25.04%
07:00
TRY Consumer Price Index (MoM)
 
 
0.05%
0.03%
07:00
TRY Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
 
15.74%
15.72%
07:15
EUR Markit Services PMI
 
 
52.7
53.6
07:45
EUR Markit Services PMI
 
 
50.0
50.5
07:50
EUR Markit PMI Composite
 
 
51.7
51.7
07:50
EUR Markit Services PMI
 
 
52.2
52.2
07:55
EUR Markit Services PMI
 
 
55.4
55.4
07:55
EUR Markit PMI Composite
 
 
51.4
51.4
08:00
EUR Markit Services PMI
 
 
53.4
53.3
08:00
EUR Markit PMI Composite
 
 
52.1
51.5
08:30
GBP Markit Services PMI
 
 
51.0
50.2
08:30
EUR Sentix Investor Confidence
 
 
0.1
-5.8
10:00
ILS Budget Balance - ILS
 
   
-6.8M
11:30
CLP IMACEC
 
   
2.3%
12:00
RON Interest rate decision
 
 
2.5%
2.5%
13:00
MXN Consumer Confidence
 
 
108.8
106.1
13:00
MXN Consumer Confidence s.a
 
 
109.1
107.5
13:45
USD Markit Services PMI
 
   
52.2
13:45
USD Markit PMI Composite
 
   
51.6
14:00
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
 
 
55.5
55.1
22:45
NZD Participation Rate
 
 
70.9%
70.4%
22:45
NZD Employment Change
 
 
0.5%
-0.2%
22:45
NZD Unemployment Rate
 
 
4.2%
4.2%
22:45
NZD Labour Cost Index (YoY)
 
 
2.1%
2.0%
22:45
NZD Labour Cost Index (QoQ)
 
 
0.5%
0.3%
23:00
KRW Current Account Balance
 
 
6.27B
4.95B
23:01
GBP BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY)
 
 
0.1%
-1.6%
23:30
JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY)
 
   
-0.2%
23:30
JPY Overall Household Spending (YoY)
 
 
1.6%
4.0%
Tuesday, Aug 06
00:00
COP Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
 
3.71%
3.43%
00:00
COP Consumer Price Index (MoM)
 
 
0.15%
0.31%
00:01
EUR Purchasing Manager Index Services
 
   
56.9
01:30
AUD Exports
 
   
4%
01:30
AUD Imports
 
   
1%
01:30
AUD Trade Balance
 
 
5,250M
5,745M
03:00
NZD RBNZ Inflation Expectations (QoQ)
 
   
2.01%
04:30
EUR Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY)
 
   
2.7%
04:30
AUD RBA Rate Statement
 
     
04:30
AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
 
 
1%
1%
05:00
JPY Coincident Index
 
 
98.8
103.4
05:00
JPY Leading Economic Index
 
 
95.0
94.9
06:00
EUR Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)
 
 
3.5%
-2.2%
06:00
EUR Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)
 
 
-7.0%
-8.6%
07:00
CZK Industrial Production (YoY)
 
 
1.0%
3.2%
07:00
CZK Construction output (YoY)
 
   
0.2%
07:00
CZK Foreign Trade Balance (MoM)
 
 
10.9B
24.4B
07:00
CHF Foreign Currency Reserves
 
   
759B
07:30
SEK Industrial Production (MoM)
 
   
-0.4%
07:30
SEK Industrial Production (YoY)
 
   
1.6%
07:30
SEK New Orders Manufacturing (YoY)
 
   
3.2%
11:00
ILS FX Reserves
 
   
$120.108B
12:55
USD Redbook Index (YoY)
 
   
4.5%
12:55
USD Redbook Index (MoM)
 
   
1%
13:00
RUB Consumer Price Index (MoM)
 
   
0%
14:00
USD JOLTS Job Openings
 
 
7.268M
7.323M
n/a
NZD GDT Price Index
 
   
2.7%
n/a
USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM)
 
   
56.6
16:00
USD Fed's Bullard speech
 
     
17:00
USD 3-Year Note Auction
 
   
1.857%
19:00
ARS Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY)
 
   
-6.9%
20:30
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
 
   
-6.024M
22:00
AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index
 
   
43
23:50
JPY JP Foreign Reserves
 
   
$1,322.3B
23:50
JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
 
     
Wednesday, Aug 07
24h
COP Battle of Boyaca holiday
 
     
01:30
AUD Home Loans
 
 
0.3%
0.0%
02:00
NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
 
     
02:00
NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
 
 
1.25%
1.50%
02:00
NZD Monetary Policy Statement
 
     
03:00
NZD RBNZ Press Conference
 
     
06:00
EUR Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)
 
 
-1.8%
-3.7%
06:00
EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)
 
 
0.4%
0.3%
06:00
DKK Industrial Production (MoM)
 
   
3.5%
06:00
ZAR Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve
 
   
$49.804B
06:00
ZAR Net $Gold & Forex Reserve
 
   
$43.94B
06:45
EUR Imports, EUR
 
   
€47.54B
06:45
EUR Trade Balance EUR
 
   
€-3.28B
06:45
EUR Exports, EUR
 
   
€44.27B
06:45
EUR Current Account
 
 
€-0.556B
€0.300B
07:00
EUR Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY)
 
   
-1.6%
07:00
EUR Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM)
 
   
-0.7%
07:00
HUF Industrial Output (YoY)
 
 
6.2%
8.7%
07:00
CZK Retail Sales (YoY)
 
 
5.0%
2.7%
07:30
GBP Halifax House Prices (MoM)
 
 
-0.2%
-0.3%
07:30
GBP Halifax House Prices (3m/YoY)
 
   
5.7%
07:30
EUR ECB's Cœuré speech
 
     
08:00
CNY Foreign Exchange Reserves (MoM)
 
 
¥3.113T
¥3.119T
08:00
CZK FX Reserves
 
   
€128.3B
09:00
INR Reverse Repo Rate
 
 
5.25%
5.50%
09:00
INR RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate)
 
 
5.50%
5.75%
09:30
ZAR Business Confidence Index
 
   
93.3
10:00
EUR Unemployment Rate
 
   
6.8%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications
 
   
-1.4%
11:00
CLP Trade Balance
 
   
$317M
11:30
INR FX Reserves, USD
 
     
12:00
PLN Central Bank FX Reserves
 
   
€103.4B
14:00
CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a
 
   
52.4
14:00
CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index
 
   
53.7
14:30
USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
 
   
-8.496M
19:00
USD Consumer Credit Change
 
 
$17.15B
$17.09B
19:00
BRL Retail Sales (MoM)
 
   
-0.1%
23:01
GBP RICS Housing Price Balance
 
 
-12%
-1%
23:50
JPY Bank Lending (YoY)
 
   
2.3%
23:50
JPY Foreign Bond Investment
 
   
¥-162.2B
23:50
JPY Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks
 
   
¥37.5B
23:50
JPY Current Account n.s.a.
 
   
¥1,594.8B
Thursday, Aug 08
05:00
EUR Industrial Output (MoM)
 
   
-2.8%
05:00
SGD Retail Sales (MoM)
 
   
-2.2%
05:00
SGD Retail Sales (YoY)
 
   
-2.1%
05:00
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook
 
   
45.8
05:00
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current
 
   
44
06:00
EUR Trade Balance
 
   
€-0.01B
06:00
NOK Manufacturing Output
 
 
-0.8%
0.3%
07:00
CNY Exports (YoY)
 
   
-1.3%
07:00
CNY Exports (YoY) CNY
 
   
6.1%
07:00
CNY Trade Balance USD
 
   
$50.98B
07:00
CNY Imports (YoY) CNY
 
   
-0.4%
07:00
CNY Imports (YoY)
 
   
-7.3%
07:00
CNY Trade Balance CNY
 
   
345.18B
07:00
EUR Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY)
 
   
1.4%
07:00
HUF Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
 
4.0%
3.8%
07:00
HUF Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
 
3.6%
3.4%
07:00
HUF Trade Balance
 
   
€674M
07:00
CZK Unemployment Rate
 
 
2.6%
2.6%
07:00
EUR Foreign Trade Balance
 
 
€395.0M
€133.1M
08:00
EUR Economic Bulletin
 
     
09:00
EUR Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY)
 
   
0.2%
09:00
EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
   
-0.3%
09:00
EUR Unemployment Rate (MoM)
 
   
17.6%
09:00
HUF Budget Balance
 
   
-213.6B
10:00
CLP Consumer Price Index (Inflation) (MoM)
 
 
0.3%
0.0%
10:00
CLP Core Consumer Price Index (Inflation) (MoM)
 
   
0%
10:00
EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
   
1.1%
10:00
EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)
 
   
0.2%
10:00
EUR HICP (MoM)
 
   
0.2%
10:00
EUR HICP (YoY)
 
   
1.1%
11:00
ZAR Manufacturing Production Index (YoY)
 
   
1%
12:30
USD Continuing Jobless Claims
 
   
1.699M
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average
 
   
211.5K
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims
 
   
215K
12:30
CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY)
 
   
0%
12:30
CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM)
 
   
-0.1%
13:00
MXN Headline Inflation
 
   
0.06%
13:00
MXN Core Inflation
 
   
0.3%
13:00
MXN 12-Month Inflation
 
   
3.95%
13:00
RUB Central Bank Reserves $
 
   
$519.9B
14:00
USD Wholesale Inventories
 
 
0.4%
0.2%
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
 
   
65B
22:45
NZD Visitor Arrivals (YoY)
 
   
-1.2%
23:50
JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY)
 
   
0.1%
23:50
JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized
 
   
2.2%
23:50
JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
 
   
0.6%
23:50
JPY Money Supply M2+CD (YoY)
 
   
2.3%
Friday, Aug 09
24h
ZAR National Women’s Day
 
     
24h
SGD National Day
 
     
00:30
AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
 
     
01:30
CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
   
2.7%
01:30
CNY Producer Price Index (YoY)
 
 
0.3%
0.0%
01:30
CNY Consumer Price Index (MoM)
 
 
-0.1%
-0.1%
04:30
EUR Manufacturing Output (MoM)
 
   
-0.5%

Disclaimer: The content above represents only the views of the author or guest. It does not represent any views or positions of FOLLOWME and does not mean that FOLLOWME agrees with its statement or description, nor does it constitute any investment advice. For all actions taken by visitors based on information provided by the FOLLOWME community, the community does not assume any form of liability unless otherwise expressly promised in writing.

FOLLOWME Trading Community Website: https://www.followme.com

If you like, reward to support.
avatar

Hot

No comment on record. Start new comment.