What to watch from the Federal Reserve this week - minutes, Jackson Hole
The Federal Open Market Committee July meeting minutes are released on Wednesday 21 August
- due at 1800GMT
As a quick what to expect, in brief via UBS:
The meeting delivered:
- 25bp cut
- upbeat statement tone
- muddled news conference message
UBS infers from this that the decision was contentious, with some members wanting a larger rate cut, while several (meaning at least 6) saw no reason to cut
UBS expect the minutes tone will probably lean dovish
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Later in the week, the Jackson Hole Symposium (August 22 to 24).
Via RBC:
- Powell set to speak Friday, the 23rd, on monetary policy challenges
- the whole notion that "some central banks are approaching a neutral policy setting, [while] others have yet to begin the process of removing policy accommodation" is ripe for a reassessment.
- multiple media interviews with many Fed members in and around the event
- An exercise in hand-holding the market akin to what we witnessed in December 2018 would not be surprising. This would likely include: 1) setting the stage for, at minimum, a 25bps cut at the September confab; 2) stressing that Quantitative Tightening is over (for those who missed it); and 3) stressing that the committee bias is now back in accommodation mode.
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