When is the Aussie jobs report and how could it affect AUD/USD?

July month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 01:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders. The figures become all the more important as traders will be keen to observe job recovery after the economic halt and amid the coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence.

Market consensus favors Employment Change to drop to 40.0K from 210.8K on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the Unemployment Rate is likely to rise from 7.4% to 7.8%. Further, the Participation Rate may increase to 64.4% from 64.00% previous readouts.

Westpac stays skeptical of market forecasts ahead of the release as their analysts say,

After a substantial jump in employment in June of 210.8k, the recovery should continue in July at a slower pace. Westpac and the market expect increases of 40k and 30k respectively. Rising participation should drive unemployment higher from 7.4% to 7.8%, which would be high since 1998.

ANZ, on the other hand, remains supportive of the consensus while saying,

Employment data at 11.30 am (Australian time) is the main game in town today. We expect employment to rise by 60k (market 40k) and the unemployment rate to lift to 7.7%.

How could the data affect AUD/USD?

Given the RBA’s dovish tone and lockdown conditions in Victoria challenging the recently upbeat trading sentiment, AUD/USD may recall the bears if employment data disappoints. It should, however, be noted that the market optimism concerning the absence of US-China tussle and latest recovery in Australia’s COVID-19 figures may gain strength on the better-than-forecast jobs report.

Technically, the pair’s bounce off 21-day EMA enables it to attack 0.7200 immediate resistance ahead of the monthly top near 0.7245. On the downside, 0.7065/60 area comprising July 24 low and June 10 high can offer an extra support past-0.7115 level including the short-term EMA.

Key Notes

AUD/USD: Recovery moves eye 0.7200 ahead of Aussie jobs report

AUD/USD Forecast: Marginally up ahead of critical Australian data.

Australian Employment Preview: Disappointing figures mostly priced in

About the Employment Change

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

About the Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).