付鹏债务观察方法论：人口和债务驱动的投资【付鹏说·加餐】
健康可持续的财政债务型投资循环有个经常被忽略的前提条件假设，即最基础的税源：人口的大量流出。
当一个区域或经济体发生人口净流出时，债务型投资会增加财政负担，无论是直投项目还是扩散行业，无论是当下还是远期，要穿透企业部门、居民部门获得现在或未来的税源扩张都较为艰难。没有了人口，债务型投资将会失效，变成无效投资，但却留下了债务
——付鹏 东北证券首席经济学家
人口老龄化影响债务融资能力
截至2022年底，中国65岁及以上人口占比达到14.9％，按世界银行口径为13.72%，也依然远高于同样世界银行口径2022年9.81%的世界平均水平。人口老龄化会直接带来地区内劳动力市场和资金供给规模的变动，进而影响企业的雇佣和投融资决策。
人口老龄化程度的加深会通过资金机会成本、资本劳动替代两个途径提高一个地区企业的债务融资水平......
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