Waller contras Powell's words

• Currencies get sold on Wednesday and overnight.

• Who's going to pay for that?

Good Day... And A Tub Thumpin' Thursday to one and all! Well, today is Opening day in Baseball... I've always said that Opening Day should be a National holiday... What say you? As I've said before, my beloved Cardinals start out the season in L.A. against the mighty Dodgers... I call them that because they seem to have all the money it takes to buy a great team... Small market teams like my Cardinals have to scrape old pitchers off the bottom of the barrel and bring them back with the hopes of one more year! But I don't see the Cardinals crying about this, so Play Ball! Christopher Cross greets me this morning with his song; Never Be The Same... 

I sing those word a lot when I look at the world these days... When I was growing up in the 60's I never thought of the problems of the world, kids are supposed to be kids, right? When I was in H.S. I thought the world evolved around me, and then when I set out to play my guitar in places all over this country, I thought that I would make Big one day... And that leads me to my career in stocks, bonds, banking, currencies, etc. And there's nothing here that'll ever be the same again! 

On my day of travel yesterday the dollar didn't do much, the BBDXY showed a 1 point gain, to 1243... I know, I know, the other day, I should have kept my trap shut and not talked about how the then 2-days of losses for the dollar could be the onset of a new trend... Because since then the dollar has gained back the 2 index points it had lost... UGH! And Gold has had a difficult time shaking free of the short Gold paper trades... Gold did end up $17.00 yesterday, and ended the day at $2,195.20, while Silver has had the same gauntlet to run through as Gold, but did end up $ 24.73 yesterday to close at $24.82... The sad thing about Silver's gain yesterday, was the previous day Silver was down and 45-cents off its intra day high! That's how much the short paper traders brought Silver down! 

The price of Oil was inching toward $82 yesterday, with the $81 handle being taken out inch by inch each day... And bonds just haven't gotten on board with the talk of 3 rate cuts this year. The 10-year's yield ended yesterday with a 4.23% yield.

In the overnight markets last night... Well, the dollar buying started yesterday afternoon, and carried over into the overnight markets.. The reason? Well...in a speech titled, “There’s Still No Rush,” Fed Head, Waller said the "Fed still needs to see lower inflation before easing monetary policy..." And that got the dollar bugs all riled up and ready to buy more dollars... In the overnight markets the BBDXY gained 3 index points, to start today at 1,246... And the euro has dropped below 1.08 again.

The price of Gold is up $16 in the early trading this morning, to start the day at $2,211... Silver though is seeing some selling and is down 8-cents to start today... That can be easily turned around, so come Silver bugs, get on the stick! The price of Oil finally went back over $82 overnight, and bonds didn't like the Waller words much either... (neither did stocks but I don't talk about stocks) 

I wonder what the room will be like when Fed Head Waller returns to the Eccles Bld... I can see this all playing out... Waller walks into the conference room where chief Fed Head Jerome Powell, is sitting there waiting for him... Waller begins to sweat for he just said something that was contra to what Powell had said (the markets should expect 3 rate cuts this year)... Powell, looks up and then gets the biggest grin on his face, and says, "Way to go, my boy! Now we've really confused the markets, in one of the best good cop, bad cop routines, ever!" 

My originating flight out of West Palm Beach yesterday was over an hour delayed, and we only had 45 minutes to our connecting flight with our original departure time to begin with... So, needless to say, we did not think we would make our connecting flight in ATL to STL... But we did, barely, as I stepped on the plane and the Airplane door shut behind me! Now, that was close! And miracles never cease, our luggage arrived in STL! Whatever happened to flights leaving on time? I don't think I can remember one that I've been on in over a year now, that wasn't delayed... 

I know, I know, those are not third world problems, Chuck! Sorry... Just had to get that off my chest this morning! Speaking of third world problems, the U.S. POTUS said that the U.S. Gov. will pay to replace the collapsed bridge in Baltimore... Psst! Do you think he really believes that Gov't will pay for it, when they don't have money to spend, without printing new currency, and then in the long run, we, as tax payers, will pay for it, either through inflation or taxes... Or just taxes, because to me, inflation is just a tax anyway... 

In a tale of two currencies going in opposite directions... The Mexican peso has just hit a new high level, while the Japanese yen hit a low for the yen that it hasn't seen since 1990... That's 34 years ago for you new math newbies... The Japanese yen traders are going bonkers that no one wants to buy yen... I didn't foresee this as the result of the BOJ brining interest rates out of negative territory earlier this month.

The yen is fallen so much that its bringing the jawboning out from the Bank of Japan, in an attempt to scare traders from shorting yen... Well, here's memo to the BOJ... Back up the talk with real coordinated intervention... Otherwise, one day when you're laying in the hospital bed and gasping for air, you'll wish you hadn't wasted your breath on jawboning... 

One thing that has hurt the yen is the fact that the dollar is doing its best suspended animation act... So, until the dollar begins to get sold because of the aforementioned 3 rate cuts from the Fed Heads on the docket for 2024... 

I recently did an interview with good friend Dennis Miller for his newsletter: www.milleronthemoney.com After doing the interview I told Dennis that I had felt very jaded that day, and if he needed for me to dial it back I would... In it accuse the Fed of being political...  

Look the latest inflation PCE (the Fed Heads' favorite inflation calculation) was 2.6%, which is a far cry from the 2% target the Fed Heads said when they began fighting inflation was their target rate... So, now, suddenly, the Fed Heads are talking about 3 rate cuts, when their target rate of 2% hasn't even been reached yet! Why would they do that? Can you say, it's an election year? And as I said in the interview that you'll be able to see in a couple of weeks, that the rate cuts would send the stock jockeys to the moon, and that, would push stocks even higher! And that, to people that don't know any better, is that the stock market = the economy...  

And in their minds if the economy is going great guns the current administration is the reason, and that, my friend is why I say the Fed Heads have become Political! I know I ticked a few of you off this morning with that statement, but someone has to point this out... Don't shoot the messenger! 

And rate cuts would bring about a weaker dollar, and a weaker dollar invites inflation into the country via trade... But who's counting any way? Certainly not the dollar bugs, they just keep buying dollars.

But what are you complaining about Chuck? the rate cuts will be good for the price of Gold, right? Well, they should, but I would much rather for my own pocketbook have inflation under control, and let Gold fend for itself! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the 2nd revision of 2nd QTR GDP, and the stupid Consumer Confidence for March... So, not much here to move the markets... 

To recap... The dollar gained another index point yesterday, marking 2 index points in the last two days, thus erasing the 2 index points it lost earlier this week. Gold was up big yesterday, along with stocks... But i don't talk about stocks, so Gold & Silver were up yesterday! Chuck spends a lot of time talking about the Japanese yen this morning.. 

For What It's Worth... This article is about how the commodity Cocoa just hit an all-time high, and should be a reason commodities should be being looked at now and it can be found here: Cocoa prices hit $10,000 per metric ton for the first time ever (cnbc.com)

Here's your snippet: "Cocoa prices hit a record Tuesday as supply constraints fuel prices higher.

Futures for May delivery were up 3.9% at $10,030 per metric ton, marking the first time the commodity breaks above the $10,000 mark. Cocoa has been on a tear this year, soaring nearly 138%

Difficult weather conditions and disease have affected production in West Africa, which produces about 70% of the world’s cocoa. The two largest producers, Ivory Coast and Ghana, have been hit by a combination of heavy rain, dry heat and disease recently.

Late last year, heavy rain and the spread of black pod disease in the two countries affected farming, according to a November report from the International Cocoa Organization. Poor road conditions also made it difficult to bring the available beans to port, according to the report.

“As these two leading producing countries supply about two-thirds of global cocoa beans, any change in their production tends to have a significant impact on the cocoa market,” the ICCO said.

Arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast and Ghana have declined 28% and 35%, respectively, since the start of the season compared to the same period last year, according to a February ICCO report.

Cocoa trades in the COMEX futures market, but it's a non-critical item, so 'da boyz' have no interest in it -- and let supply/demand fundamentals do their thing. Not so in silver, as when the run into it gets underway...it will be of Biblical proportions."

Chuck again.. That last paragraph was by Ed Steer who added his two cents to the article... 

Market Prices 3/28/2024: American Style: A$ .6492, kiwi .5964, C$ .7356, euro 1.0784, sterling 1.2615, Swiss $1.1040, European Style: rand 19.0490, krone 10.8495, SEK 10.6934, forint 356.94, zloty 4.0009, koruna 23.4734, RUB 92.47, yen 151.33, sing 1.3511, HKD 7.8243, INR 83.40, China 7.2288, peso 16.57, BRL 4.9852, BBDXY 1,246.40, Dollar Index 104.58, Oil $82.41, 10-year 4.22%, Silver $24.77, Platinum $900.00, Palladium $1.001.00, Copper $4.00, and Gold... $2,211.10.

That's it for today... Tomorrow is Good Friday, and that's a holiday in the stock market, but not for bonds, currencies and metals.. And Sunday is Easter! I always get a kick out of how my two granddaughters dress on Easter! Family will be here in force on Sunday, which means that this is one of those years, that all of the kids will be with us on Easter... YAHOO! My beloved Cardinals get started today at 3 o'clock our time, I'll be glued to the TV for sure! I had to wear long pants and a long sleeved shirt to come back home yesterday, as the temps here were not as pleasant as in S. Florida...I was happy to see the house all in one piece and not under water when we arrived home last night... the great Al Stewart takes us to the finish line today with his song: On The Border... I hope you have a Tub Thumpin' Thursday today, and a very Happy Easter on Sunday, if that's your thing... And don't forget to Be Good To Yourself!