Morning briefing: Euro could remain ranged within 1.0600-1.0700 for a while

Good morning!

The Dollar Index needs to be sustained above 106 to test 106.5-107 else can get dragged towards 105.5-105. Meanwhile, the Euro could remain ranged within 1.06-1.07 for a while. EURJPY remains volatile within the 165-162 region with a possible attempt to break higher while USDJPY is headed towards 155-156. Aussie and Pound are heading higher towards 0.65 and 1.25 respectively. USDCNY remained flat above 7.24 on Friday and may continue to rise towards 7.25. EURINR is rising towards the upper end of the 88-90 range. In USDINR, we can expect a lower opening below 83.55/50 in onshore markets today with an overall range of 83.55-83.40/35 for the near term.

The US Treasury yields have recovered sharply from their lows on Friday. This keeps the positive bias intact and keeps the doors open for more rise in the coming days. The German yields sustain their range breakout. But a strong follow-through rise is needed from here to move higher and avoid falling back into the range again. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have risen sharply on Friday. The bullish outlook is intact, and the yields can rise further from here.

Dow Jones and Nikkei have bounced a bit but outlook will remain bearish while below the resistance at 38100 and 38000 respectively. DAX remains bearish for the near term. Strong recovery was seen in Nifty last friday but it has to overcome the resistance ahead to negate the danger of falling towards 21500-21300. Shanghai has scope to break on the upper end of the sideways range and target further upside.

Crude prices have fallen back sharply. Brent might get some support at $86-85. WTI can fall further while it remains below $83-84. Gold and Silver to trade sideways for a while. Copper continues to rally but might face rejections near 4.58-4.60. Natural Gas to trade sideways within 1.50-2.00 for a while.

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