From an FX perspective, we must note that the dollar traded lower after the last three FOMC announcements. The chances of Powell sounding more dovish than market expectations are, however, lower this time. Markets are pricing in 34bp of easing by December, and the momentum is tilted to that being trimmed further to 25bp. Ultimately, though, both rate expectations and the dollar are more strictly tied to data than what cautious Fed communication may signal. Today, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing index should not move the market, but on Wednesday, ADP payrolls, JOLTS job openings and the ISM manufacturing (service index out on Friday) will all be key drivers before the FOMC announcement. Friday’s jobs report is the week's biggest event – probably more important than the Fed meeting. The NFIB small business hiring survey and the ISM employment index are pointing to a slowdown in employment gains in the second quarter, and we expect a 210k payroll print versus 250k consensus. We think the dollar is more likely to lose some ground because of payrolls than because of the Fed if anything. Before key risk events take over, we still favour another leg higher in the greenback. DXY is trading lower after what was probably a round of FX intervention in Japan (more on this below), but downside risks to EUR/USD can fuel a return to the 106.0 mark into the Fed meeting.