EUR: ECB-Fed divergence narrative crumbling Yesterday, the European Central Bank's Chief Economist Philip Lane said there is no one-dimensional view of Fed-ECB divergence. What we are observing in markets over the past week is actually a convergence of both Fed pricing to the ECB’s and a generally more cautious stance of ECB officials on the prospect of a large and quick cutting cycle beyond June. The dollar leg still has the biggest impact on EUR/USD, but the euro appears on more solid ground. What we must highlight, at the same time, is that the euro has the lowest sensitivity to moves in 2-year USD swap rates across the whole of G10. That has allowed the common currency to outperform most other G10 currencies since the start of the year but is going to stay a laggard if US data endorses a further dovish repricing of Fed expectations. Today, EUR/USD will be moved primarily by US jobs and ISM services releases. A softer-than-expected payroll print can unlock upside potential for the pair to the 1.0850/1.0870 pre-March-US CPI levels.