The consensus for today’s April nonfarm payroll print is 240k, and our call is 210k. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.8%. We note that – despite the continued strength in the latest payroll prints – business surveys still point to a substantial slowing in employment. One of those surveys is the ISM, whose services component is also released this afternoon and expected to come in at 52.0, up from 51.4 in March. Like in previous jobs releases, the discussion around data quality will be central. The payroll survey has continued to give contrasting indications to the household employment data, which has been much weaker since 4Q23. The household survey is thought to be missing a proper adjustment for rising immigration in the US, essentially underestimating the total workforce and showing inaccurately lower unemployment rates. On the other hand, payrolls may be doing some double counting as the number of Americans holding multiple jobs is at a 30-year high and the birth-death adjustment is generally considered to be pumping up the jobs figures. A convergence of any of those series towards the other would be a crucial development in the coming months.